Energy – facts and trends

Ulrik Stridbaek presented the forthcoming challenges in his world energy outlook. The principal questions are: is there enough energy and what will be the effect of renewable energy supplies? These questions are prompted by rising demand, lack of investments and refinery capacity and also political tensions. The transport sector is the largest consumer of oil. The IEA expects world oil consumption to double by the year 2030. It has to be borne in mind that increased demand for oil also pushes up the price of gas. On the supply side, a third of the world’s oil comes from MENA countries (countries of the Middle East and North Africa), and this will increase to almost a half as production in the OECD countries declines up to 2030, by which time OECD countries will obtain two-thirds of their oil imports from MENA countries. These imports by OECD countries will increase from 200 bcm in 2003 to 500 bcm by 2030. The main suppliers are Russia, Iran and Qatar. Ships transport liquefied gas to North America, where it is used increasingly to generate electricity. By 2030 more than half the electricity-producing capacity is to be replaced. The second major challenge lies in CO2 emissions. In 2020, the newly industrialized countries will overtake the west, and by 2030 emissions of CO2 will have increased by 5 percent. The G8 summit of Gleneagles commissioned the IEA to come up with a “World Alternative Scenario”. Parameters to be analysed are biofuels, renewable energy, a decrease in consumption generally and a 10 percent decrease in oil and natural gas, nuclear energy and the replacement of coal with natural gas, increased effectiveness in energy reduction generally and the issue of investments. The developing countries have to invest in the “right” energy sources. The aims of the Kyoto protocol remain unachievable, even if strict energy policies, technological advances, energy sources such as biomass, stabilized CO2 emissions and slower growth in demand contribute something to the achievement of objectives.